Argentina: Javier Milei, a far-right libertarian outsider will be the next president of Argentina after defeating Economy Minister Sergio Massa, a Peronist, in Sunday’s runoff election. Milei, a political firebrand who has embraced conspiracy theories and called for radical change, captured around 56% of the vote. (Reuters) |
Our Take: Since bursting onto Argentina’s political scene, Milei has been called the Argentinian Donald Trump, much like how Jair Bolsonaro was called the Brazilian Trump. |
To some extent, these comparisons—which Milei has welcomed—are understandable. Both Milei and Trump have similarly unhinged personas, and both achieved victory riding the wave of a cultural backlash. Argentina has achieved enormous progressive victories in recent years, from legalized abortion to LGBTQ+ rights. Milei’s election now represents a challenge to this progressive legacy in much the same way that Trump’s victory in 2016 represented a symbolic disavowal of the Obama era. |
But it’s also important to understand why Milei’s election is a uniquely Argentinian outcome. The Argentine population has suffered enormously for much of the past decade, with the past four years defined by an economic meltdown under outgoing President Alberto Fernandez, one that was itself preceded by painful austerity cuts and economic crisis during former President Mauricio Macri’s term in office. All of this pain was exacerbated by the country’s especially traumatic COVID-19 lockdown. |
As a result, Milei’s win represents not just a cultural backlash but a true cry of desperation by Argentina’s population. His wide margin of victory also makes this election a clear disavowal of the Peronist movement, with voters making clear that even a moderate Peronist like Sergio Massa—who does not come from the movement’s Kirchnerist wing—was not a viable option. |
Milei also differs from Trump and Bolsonaro in that he will now find it very difficult to get any part of his agenda passed, let alone his most radical proposals. Milei’s party will hold just 35 seats in the country’s 257-seat lower house, meaning that even with the support of Macri’s conservative Juntos por el Cambio coalition—of which he likely won’t get every members’ support—he would still need the votes of independents for a majority. |
Plus, Argentina’s progressives, including the pro-abortion rights Green Wave movement, are strong, mobilized and well-organized, providing a counterforce to Milei’s reactionary social agenda. And unlike in Brazil when Bolsonaro was elected, the country’s post-dictatorship memory project—which is currently celebrating the 40th anniversary of the restoration of democracy in Argentina—is a vibrant social and political force that will be vigilant to Milei’s historical revisionism regarding the dictatorship. As a result, organized opposition to Milei on the streets of Argentina will be strong. |
What all this means is that Milei’s time in office will, in all likelihood, be defined by political paralysis, which will only leave Argentina worse off. |